Still Debating on Moving … Arg! (Comments Welcome)

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 31, 2009 in rakeback | 7 comments

Alright, so I'm still going back and forth on the debate to move to the new site with 35% rakeback and constant reload bonuses. Basically the way it works (as you can read from the last post) is that it's really one or the other (not both) at that site.

At the estimated calculated rate, I can grind about $400 in bonuses at the new site if I play 18,000 hands at 100nl 6max. On top of that I can probably count on another $50 in bonus money or rakeback leftover, so basically $450 in "rakeback/bonus/whatever" is pretty good. In addition I think my expected win-rate should be higher at this site because the competition is soft, but not THAT much higher because game selection isn't great.

At PokerStars playing at GoldStar Level means basically 12% rakeback and around $185 per month. It takes about 22,000 hands to hit Platinum for a better return so since the previous calculation was done at 18,000 hands per month I have to keep it at that 12% = $185 number.

So in pure dollars one site will return $450 to me for playing there, while another will return $185.

There are other factors, specifically:

• Reward $$ per month (already discussed above)
• Software (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Scripts (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Traffic (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Regulars (Clear advantage for New Site)
• Trust (Clear advantage for PokerStars)

I have been weighing each category and have a spreadsheet with an algrothym and all that fancy jazz.  Basically each one I do comes out a wash.  The debate of "Reward $$ + Bad Regs" = "Software + Scripts + Traffic + Trust" and I can't move either way.

Schools of thought:

1. Move to "New Site" and grind out the bonus (it would take like 10 months to grind out 100% of my bankroll) and see just how soft the competition is and what my expected win-rate would be.  Weigh the advantages of increased reward money + (assumed) higher win-rate over the plusses of PokerStars.
2. Wait to see what the new VIP promotions at PokerStars will be in June and July.  Apparently something is coming but chances are it will simply be another month with an instant cash bonus at the concierge rate.  Grind the 50nl on "New Site" while I play 100nl at Stars, and possibly barely make GoldStar at Stars.
3. Screw the mindgames of rakeback and bonus money and just stick it out at Stars, and make a serious and well planned effort at playing enoug hands to at least make Platinum.

Your thoughts???