Rough Month for Poker

Posted by icemonkey9 on Feb 11, 2011 in month | 1 comment

I know I've suddenly gotten back into the habit of posting bad beat hands on here, but I promised myself after the last time I wouldn't post another one unless I took another runner-runner bad beat with the money in.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $197.00
MP1: $255.60
MP2: $627.70
Hero (CO): $203.75
BTN: $205.00
SB: $104.80
BB: $660.75
UTG: $203.00
UTG+1: $153.50

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with K K
5 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, SB raises to $18, 1 fold, Hero raises to $41, SB calls $23

Flop: ($84.00) 8 J 4 (2 players)
SB bets $63.80 all in, Hero calls $63.80

Turn: ($211.60) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($211.60) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $211.60
Hero shows K K (a pair of Kings)
SB shows Q Q (a flush, Queen high)
SB wins $208.60
(Rake: $3.00)

Standard lol. At least it was only a 104 big blind pot. I've managed to make up almost half my losses for the month so that's a good thing although the last 3k hands have been absolutely break even. I just checked my EV Graph for the first time and it confirmed what I thought - it's slightly over $0 meaning I'd be breakeven if I was running "right" so to speak. Not like it's something I can control though, all I can control is my volume and how well I am playing when I sit at the tables.

It seems like a lot of people out there are having really rough starts to 2011 or just for February. I have a few friends that believe in the whole moon/planet/stars alignment thing and although I don't believe in that kind of stuff I gotta admit sometimes it does creep in.

But I think what we all need to admit is that we're living in a time when online poker really sucks. I've been around long enough to know that the games are so much tougher and the player pools so much smaller and the edges are thinner. The guys winning and good clips right now should really be proud of themselves, in all seriousness. It's tough out there, even at games like 100nl (blinds of $0.50-$1), there is no cakewalk. The good news is that live poker will, and I pray forever will be, super soft at $1/$3 and $2/$5. The micro-stakes games at 25nl ($0.10-$0.25 blinds) look super soft as well.

In terms of the industry, some difficult thing continue to go on. We're beginning to see entire small networks die off, which was something I predicted at the end of 2010. It was the kind of thing that I predicted would come true that I hoped would not. I think eventually we will get down to 4-5 networks total and everything else out there will be gone. Maybe that'll be a good thing but in the USA, it's really frustrating. I keep hearing that there's a possibility of California (where I live) getting their own in-state online poker system going soon. I doubt that will be a good thing "for the industry" to be honest. It might be awesome at first here, but eventually, it'll just cannibalize itself like we've seen with a global industry as constrained as it has been for the last few years.

So that's where I am at. The games at the tables aren't going so well for me, but at least I'm a 0.3BB/100 winner over my last 75k hands before rakeback/rewards. I guess I am looking for the positives right now, something I try to do whenever I start feeling cynical about the poker industry, and it's hard to find the light. I'm sure with a little more help, I can.