Analyzing Yesterday’s Debacle Hands

Posted by icemonkey9 on Jan 26, 2009 in General | 0 comments

I went through 8 of the top 10 loser hands yesterday to see what went wrong. Basically it was a combination of BAD river bets, villains hitting and showing top-end ranges, and a little bit of coolers. Here's what I came up with I think it's kinda interesting so hopefully anyone reading can follow the notes, but I put this here for the next time I go through a brutal day to remind myself what it takes to get through it.

Breakdown of WTF happened yesterday.

Hand 1. AIPF with KK vs QQ. Q hit the flop, classic bad beat.
Result -$100

Analysis: Pure bad beat, time to move on and not think about that one.

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Hand 2: Overplayed pocket jacks. JJ I 3bet preflop from the BB (he called) as an overpair on a 5T42 board (2 clubs) stacked off, ran into QQ. A little bit unlucky here but I had to keep QQ-AA in his range I suppose. Pokerazor says my hand is best 79% of the time and my equity is 62.7%.

Result -$91

Analysis: Overplayed the pocket pair. QQ should have been in his range but I thought he had AK the whole time since he didn't 4bet me. A little unlucky, but an overplayed hand.

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Hand 3: QT limped in the BB and 1 limper in MP who is a 38/11/5. I flop top two pair. I stack off against him as a 58-42 favorite (he has AJ for the gutshot draw and flush draw). He hits the draw. When I stacked off pokerazor said my hand is best 98.7% of the time and I have 84.4% equity.

Result: -$89

Analysis: I like this stackoff in the 60-40 situation. I just got unlucky again. Even when he hit his draw I had plenty of outs to recover, but I airballed.

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Hand 4: J2 limped against MP limper who is 44/14/3. I hit trips on the flop and he calls me down to river which fills a flush draw and he stacks. I called. Villain shows the flush and wins. Pokerazor says my hand is best 98.6% of the time and I have 94.5% equity.

Result: -$78

Analysis: Given the board it was probably a bad bad bad call, but I had put him on a J or even a pocket pair like 99. A player like this I am ahead so often, but when his runner runner flush was good. Even though Pokerazor might say I should overwhelmingly have called this bet, I have doubts that it was a good call.

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Hand 5: J9 checks in BB against MP limper (55/13) and played to the river I hit a flush. He min-raises my river valuebet and I shove, he calls showing a fullhouse. Pokerazor says my hand is best 15.7% of the time and my equity was 31%.

Result: -$78

Analysis: Bad bad bad play at the river on my part. Big time boner.

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Hand 6: I 3bet a TAG from the BB with AK and he flats ($11). Flop comes J97 and I check-call. He stacks the river 3 that fills a flush (I do have the A of hearts). I fold. he shows 99 for the set.

Result: -$60

Analysis: There was some metagame as this villain was someone I know from CardsChat (Irexes). I'm very surprised he decided to continue with 99 and feel he got lucky on the flop hitting his set, but made the right move by pricing me out at the river (I had put him on either QQ or JJ actually). The hand was fine though, if he wants to setmine against me without the odds, great.

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Hand 7: QQ in MP makes a raise and a caller (22/18). Flop is T64 rainbow and he flats my cbet. Turn is a 5 and I cbet and he flats again. River 7 comes and I half-pot it, he flats and shows 44 for the set. Pokerazor says my hand is best 91% of the time and my equity is best 77%.

Result: -$49

Analysis: I really should have checked the river once there was four cards to the straight on the board. My river bet was bad, and even with a set he would have checked too. So that part was bad ... but I just saw someone hit a set against me, that'll happen.

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Hand 8: AKs UTG I make a raise and a nit (14/11) calls in LP. Flop is checked at 953 two diamonds, Q turn I cbet, he calls, river is an A of diamonds, I pot-bet and he calls and shows AQ for two pair. Pokerazor said my hand was best 69% of the time and equity was 60%.

Result: -$30

Analysis: Again even though I hit my ace on the river the diamond draw hit and I should have check-called. Bad play at the river.