Poker Blog – icemonkey9 on PokerStars

I felt like blogging but there’s no specific topic I have in mind so this will be a “general rambling” type of entry.  Sometimes it’s nice just to post what I am thinking about!

New Site Done!

Maybe I am on to something here setting up custom WordPress themes for poker players.  I set up my second one for good friend Brian (aka BW07507), and I scored a killer domain name for him too.  Check his site out at CrushingOnlinePoker.com which just launched this week.  If you are interested in hiring me to do something similar for you, just contact me through my contact page.

LOST Season 6

If you know me personally you know I’m as big a LOST fan as there is out there.  My wife and I watched the last few episodes of Season 5 (which I loved) to get ourselves psyched for Season 6 which premieres on Tuesday night.  I’ve avoided any and all spoilers, but from my understanding both ABC and the producers of the show have not released any images or information.  I think for this last season of my favorite all time show ever I’ll post my thoughts after each episode and share my personal crack theories.

For Season 6, I don’t know what they are expected to do, but I think it’s going to go along the lines of:

• The first few episodes will be all “flashbacks” meaning that the bomb DID work and did do a reset.  Oceanic 815 never crashed and our Losties lived their lives as normal.  That means we need to find out what happened to them between 2004-2008 of the series’ timeline.
• At some point a third of the way through we’ll understand what this whole “bigger picture conflict” is about with Jacob and Mr Man in Black Shirt and how it involves our Losties (it has to be along the lines of Free Will vs a Strict Destiny)
• We then “catch up” with our cast in 2010.  The problem is that they don’t remember their lives as rewritten by the reset … they only remember what they lived through.  This makes them realize they need each other, yadda yadda, and that they are involved in something bigger.
• Enter giant conflict and resolutions.
• End show, fade to white.

A Couple of Big Poker Projects

I’m in charge of two big poker projects for two different websites.  Unfortunately I am just building up things here as a teaser and won’t even tell you what sites these projects are for.  The good news is that one of these projects will probably be up and live next week so stay tuned.

My Take on Zachvac’s Prop Bet

Zachvac is an old friend of mine going back to my very first days of online poker.  He’s a bright young kid with a great poker mind who I really enjoyed spending time with in Las Vegas as well as when he lived in La Jolla and I would go visit.  Like all young kids he’s done some things I’ve not agreed with (the whole Huck Felmuth debacle and what he put Deb through … she’s such a nice lady) but if those are the worst things he’s done then he’s a saint compared to me when I was his age!

Anyways, Zach has taken on the latest ridiculous proposition bet for the online world.  His plan is to profit $15,000 in 31 days playing strictly 100nl ($0.50-$1 tables) on Full Tilt Poker (max of 16 regular tables and a stipulation in place for Rush Poker).  Basically if Zach wins at his normal win-rate it’ll take about 220,000 hands of poker.  If he wins at 1.5 BB/100 it will take a half-million hands.  He’s taken a ton of action getting 3:1 odds so if he actually pulls this off he’ll have the bankroll to tackle the mid-stakes games.  The whole thing is a tiny bit crazy but I’ll be following this one very closely.

Busting Tilt

I found a great way to get off any sort of tilt you might be facing, be it from poker or life.  What you do is take your 3-year-old nephew to Disneyland and have a ball and be a kid.  Seriously, who can be pissed about a bad session when you pose for a picture with Donald Duck?

Certainly not me!  I actually got my ticket to Disneyland for free because they have a volunteer thing going on.  I gave blood at a local hospital and I got my ticket, which I applied to get an annual pass which came out to about $100 for the year which seemed like a no brainer.  FYI, I live about 15 minutes away from Disneyland, so it’s not like it’s something I’d just do twice a year.  Obviously, my wife was thrilled at the prospect of visiting Disneyland once or twice a month and has her pass all ready to go.  Tilt – BUSTED!

Sennheiser HD 555 Headphones Arrive

I am not sure if any of you care about what headphones I use, but I imagine that there’s a lot of online poker players that use headphones while playing.  This way we can listen to whatever music we like and our bleeps & chings at the poker tables without annoying anyone else in the house/condo/apartment/cave.  I had a pair of okay headphones with the Skullcandy Hesh, but they didn’t fit my head too well and would get very uncomfortable on my ears after an hour.

Enter the Sennheiser HD 555s, an amazing set of headphones which fit amazingly on your head.  The comfort level is through the roof with these things!  They are extremely comfortable and totally enclose your ears without hitting them.  It’s an open design so your head won’t sweat either, with the trade-off being that people next to you will faintly hear whatever you are listening to.

In terms of audio quality, they aren’t the “OMG SO AMAZING” headphones I thought they would be.  There is very little bass tone to these guys.  What happened though is that I played around with the equalizer settings in iTunes and found one that made them sound awesome.  I’m hearing elements and instruments in songs I never did before, which in my opinion, is a huge complment.  When I add together the increase factor of the comfort (huge) plus increased quality of sound (minor) over my old headphones, I think the purchase (sub $100!!!) was well worth it.

Killing the Shorties

My hate of shortstackers is well documented in the 2 year history of this blog.  After playing my 20k hands at 25nl I can understand now why I see some people on TwoPlusTwo say “who cares, shortstackers suck!” because at 25nl and 50nl they are really horrible and don’t know what they are doing.

The problem is when you get to the small and mid stakes games.  At 100nl you’ll definitely find some decent shorties that know what they are doing and I found more than a handful of great ones at 200nl.  I’ve never played above that level but many mid and high stakes players document all the time how the shorties are the single biggest problem in online poker today.

Now, the war is won at Full Tilt Poker … and hopefully PokerStars will follow suit soon.  The rumors are out there that its coming up in their meetings and they have heard a ton of feedback already.  If you feel strongly about the issue, I highly suggest PM’ing “Scottyy” or “PS SteveD” on TwoPlusTwo because those comments DO go a long way.

In news that will shock nobody, I didn’t quit poker and this blog after all.

So I took off poker for a week completely following my meltdown.  I did some serious reflecting on whether I wanted to really quit and just unload my money and move on in life.  Basically, one thing stood out in my mind that I read in Dusty’s book AND that Taylor kept drilling in my head – you have to play your way through variance.  You simply cannot look at 10, 20 or even 50k hands and say “okay that’s a regular sample” because its just not true.  Given my level of tolerance to swings and ability to make time for poker plus the amount of 6max tables I am able to play at once, I really began to think that playing 4-6 tables of 6max was a bad idea for me.  Why?

• I simply don’t get enough hands per hour.  5-tabling 6max is about 500-550 hands per hour.
• By not playing enough and getting so “few” hands per hour, I’m not able to put in the hands required to get me through swings
• Over the course of my life, I simply have never shown any success playing 6max despite two solid attempts

Assuming that I simply couldn’t go back to 100nl 6max (which to this day is a repulsive idea to me), the thought was, well, is that it (I actually do quit) or is there something else I can do?  One thing I had never tried is playing more than 9 tables at once of any game … and playing 14+ tables at once could get me all the way to 1k hands per hour.  That would let me “play through it a lot better” in theory.  So, I experimented back at PokerStars 15-tabling full ring at 25nl.  I gave myself 20k hands to just feel it out, see if I could process and think through hands in that scenario.  TBH, I didn’t know what to expect, but I dove right in.  The goal was to simply assess my abilities while 15-tabling and to see if it was fun.

Fortunately, I didn’t run terrible and got a fair shake.  Playing such a low stake level plus so many hands per hour also helped me greatly understand the swings and pings of variance.  The data started making sense and I could see where certain villain phenomenons would take place (for example I would have W$SD consistently at 60-65% for 90% of sessions, then 35-40% for 10% of sessions).  Playing so many hands also forced me to not look at the results hand-to-hand and get caught up in bad beats and coolers because it was constantly the next hand that required my attention.

I completed my 20k test run … and it went well.  I enjoyed playing 15-tables, I felt I had a great grasp of what was going on, and stomping the competition’s face in was fun too (I won 4.6 BB/100).  I’m well rolled for 50nl on stars and to a degree 100nl even if I so choose (note that I had a bit of a bankroll on Stars).  The graph is below:

The issue I face now is, “what now”?  I posed a bunch of questions over to Taylor and am awaiting his response since I take his opinion very seriously … What do I do with my roll at Full Tilt Poker, where I am really disgusted to ever play at anymore?  What do I do in terms of 6max … or do I go with what is working and to a degree historically worked for me?  What does this all mean for coaching, as I LOVE the fact that my “Poker IQ” has increased since sessions began with Taylor and I want to keep that going?

Stay tuned.

I am notorious for never spending money on myself and buying family and friends things that they need that they can’t afford.  It’s not like I am doing really well right now, I’m definitely not.  It’s just my nature to be giving.  However, there is one thing I will splurge on for myself and thats my computer and its accessories.  It’s a nice thing because it does come with a heafty price tag but I only do it every 2-3 years at most.

The first big purchase was a new laptop.  I had my MacBook Pro for 3.5 years and although it is still running great, for what I do in my day-to-day activities I am just not a Mac guy.  Now, for general computing and all that, yes, Mac is awesome.  Video Editing? Mac all the way.  Gaming/Poker/Other stuff that I do, Windows is definitely the way to go.

So I found a site called Xoticpc.com which sells specialized high-end laptops and systems for a good price with excellent customer service.  I found the following laptop and was able to score it at a price I just couldn’t believe:

ASUS G73JH

The Specs on this thing are through the roof:

• 17.3″ monitor at 1920×1080 resolution
• i7 Intel Processor (goes up to 2.8GHz for single thread applications)
• 8GB of RAM
• Two 500GB 7200RPM hard drives
• ATI HD5870 Video Card (amazing!!!)
• Surround Sound
• BluRay Player + DVD/CD-RW Drive
• Windows 7

The price was $1,619 (I got a price match deal) which is just ridiculous because I priced out something similar at Alienware which came just under $3k for the same specs.  Asus is a good brand name and it comes with a 2 year warranty.  So, I bit the bullet, pulled out some poker money and had some saved and made the pre-order purchase.  It is expected to ship in mid to late February!!

Here’s the pic:

Asus G73JH

The other big purchase was some new headphones.  I’ve been putting these off for about a year.  For the last year or so I have had these SkullCandy Hesh headphones which aren’t bad.  They just aren’t great and the comfort is “meh” at best.  I’ve been meaning to buy some excellent headphones and with the help of “Infamous” (a guy I know via forums) he turned me on to the true leader in headphones – Sennheiser.  All the reviews I read basically say Bose is just an overpriced mid-range pair of headphones that has great marketing behind it.  Sennheisers are the true leaders of the industry.

After what was probably 4 months of shopping around and reading reviews, I finally settled on the Sennheiser HD555 headphones.  They are the middle of the line for them, but a huge upgrade in terms of quality for what I currently have.   They came down in price to a reasonable amount ($110 on eBay) so I made the purchase on these tonight.  Fortunately it’s shipping from Texas and should be here by Friday or Saturday at the latest.  Here’s the pic:

Sennheiser HD555 Headphones

A Post Inspired by the 2009-2010 San Diego Chargers

Nate Kaeding (#10) of the Chargers

If you read my football prediction post, you’ll immediately recognize why I will never succeed in the world of sports betting.  That fact aside, I was inspired by my favorite football team, the San Diego Chargers, to write about why losers always lose.

As a background if you are not familiar with American NFL Football, the San Diego Chargers have been in the NFL for 44 years.  In  the entire history of their team in the NFL, they have made the championship game just once and in that game lost in one of the most lopsided games in the history of the Super Bowl (1995).  During the last six years the Chargers have consistently had one of the best regular season teams and most talented rosters in the league.  The problem they have had, each and every year, is winning in the playoffs. One year (2006) they had the best record in the 32 team league and lost their first playoff game. This year they had the second best record in the NFL, played an overachieving Jets team and played as if they had never seen a football in their collective lives.  Their loss today in the playoff game might rank as their most disappointing loss yet as they had come in winning 11 straight in a 16 game season.

Given their history of failure in the playoffs, you would think they would learn from such losses and mistakes.

Teams that lose in the playoffs are ones that fail to remember what got them there.  In the case of the Chargers, they were one of the least penalized teams  all year, but in the first quarter they racked up 6 debilitating penalties. They also rarely turned the ball over, but they threw two interceptions and nearly lost two fumbles.

Teams that lose in the playoffs are ones that let the pressure get to them mentally.  With the Chargers, our friend pictured above was voted an all star (in the NFL they call it the Pro Bowl) for being the best kicker.  He had made 69 straight within 40 yards … and he missed 2 within 40 yards and 1 outside of that range for an 0/3 night. The Chargers lost by 3 points … if he had made his 2 within 40 they would have won 20-17. For the record, he’s missed key field goals in similar playoff situations before.

Teams that lose in the playoffs are ones that lost their composure.  In this game the Chargers had three or four (I can’t remember how many) personal foul penalties (the maximum 15 yard variety) which were due to a complete lack of composure and maturity (from a mature team in terms of age).

Finally, teams that lose in the playoffs are ones that play down to the level of their competition.  The Chargers went 13-3 and had won 11 straight and the Jets had luckboxed their way into the playoffs with a 9-7 record.  There was no doubt which team was more talented, but instead of forcing the Jets to play catch up with their high powered offense, the Chargers played down and trudged along all game long.

SO – What’s the connection with poker?

Much of what constantly troubles the Chargers trouble poker players.  Don’t make costly mistakes that you know goes against your training.  Don’t let the pressure of the situation get to you and always think clearly.  Never lose your composure due to tilt and coolers.  Finally, don’t play down to your competition’s level.  If you are playing with a bunch of fish, great … don’t let that change your solid and proven game.  Keep attacking, keep playing the right way and don’t start being fancy and altering your strategy against the fish just because they’ve won a few hands.

There’s a reason why losers will always lose – they never learn and fix their mistakes.

As some of you might know, I am a member of the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity.  I say “am” because I believe that membership truly is for life as brotherhood extends well beyond your days as an active member.  I never was president of the fraternity chapter, but for two years I served as Pledge Educator, meaning it was my responsibility to teach the laws, history and lore of the fraternity.  I enjoyed the role very much as it allowed me to get to know the new members well and forge strong bonds a lot of the others guys didn’t get the opportunity to form.

One of the major stories that I would teach to all the classes was the story of the Phoenix, a mythical bird  whose story begins in ancient Egypt…

The Phoenix is an Egyptian mythological bird of red, gold and purple plumage, colors of the rising sun. The phoenix, symbolizing rebirth and resurrection, died in the fire of the funeral pyre, but arose from the ashes.

“At the top of a palm tree a bird’s nest catches fire. It has been ignited by a spark struck from the hooves of celestial steeds drawing the chariot of Ra, the Egyptian sun god. Amid the flames a beautiful Arabian bird extends its golden neck and purple wings, but instead of flying off, it dances. Eventually, it is consumed by the fire and reduced to ashes…but this is not the end. Indeed, it is only the beginning- for five hundred years later a new bird is reborn from the ashes. It seals the remains of the nest in myrrh, wraps it in aromatic leaves, and molds it into the shape of an egg. It carries this as a sacred offering to the temple of the sun at Heliopolis, and then flies away to paradise. Five hundred years later it returns to earth, where it begins again the cycle of self-immolation and resurrection-a process that continues forever.”

The Phoenix shall rise from its own ashes.

This describes how I feel, 100% about poker. (Substitute “Linda” for “Poker”):

I think this might be it.  I feel terrible. I feel like I’ve let down so many people that have invested their time and emotions with. I feel like I’ve wasted so much time over the last 2 years investing myself in a game I can’t beat.  There are simply better activities that I can be doing with my time.  I feel like such a jerk too, for simply not being able to power through and put in the hands necessary that everyone tells me I need to do in order to get through a stretch like this.  But I’m simply unable to do it.  I hate what this game does to me and makes me feel.  My days as a player and taking this game seriously are now over.  I have so many apologies to give.

For those of you that have followed this blog for 2+ years, I want to thank you for your comments.  Take care and I wish you all the best.

It’s been 2 months of 0BB/100 poker with the year starting off bad (-4BB/100 bad) and although I am studying and getting coaching, I’m just not happy with the game.  The funny thing I have learned is that your EV graph is hardly a good way of seeing if you are running good or not.  Right now I am a tad above expected EV but the goofiest weirdest things keep happening.  I got some encouragement when I sent hands from a recent session and both Taylor and Brian (two 200nl+ players I am friends with) told me on all the hands I sent they would both have played it exactly the same.  That made me feel a TON better, because the worst thing that happens to me is feeling like coaching and studying is wasting everyone’s time and my game isn’t getting better.  Maybe without the coaching and stuff things would be a lot worst than just being down a few buy-ins now to start January.

Here’s some hands … feel free to comment. If you plan on writing a “you just got to put in the hands and play through it” comment, please don’t, I’ve heard it and I totally understand.  If you have some sort of magic phrase or want to send me a leprechaun’s dick for good luck, then I’ll accept that.

———————–

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold’em – 5 players

Hero (BB): $106.40

UTG: $259.45

CO: $106.10

BTN: $100.00

SB: $19.80

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Q K

2 folds, BTN (22/18/3) raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) Q T Q (2 players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($14.50) 9 (2 players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $11, Hero raises to $33, BTN calls $22

River: ($80.50) A (2 players)

Hero bets $66.40 all in, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $60 all in

Final Pot: $200.50

Hero shows Q K (three of a kind, Queens)

BTN shows J 8 (a straight, Queen high)

BTN wins $197.50

———————–

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players

SB: $120.50

BB: $100.00

UTG: $85.25 (24/10, folds to 3bets 0% over 120 hands)

Hero (MP): $148.30

CO: $20.00

BTN: $26.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with A K

UTG raises to $5, Hero raises to $15, 4 folds, UTG calls $10

Flop: ($31.50) 5 6 3 (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG raises to $70.25 all in, Hero calls $40.25

Turn: ($172.00) 7 (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($172.00) 7 (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $172.00

UTG shows Q A (a flush, Ace high)

Hero shows A K (a flush, King high)

UTG wins $169.00

———————–

Goofing around at 25nl FR to “have some fun” …

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold’em – 9 players

CO: $24.65

BTN: $29.55

SB: $12.85

BB: $26.00

UTG: $25.90

UTG+1: $25.25

UTG+2: $13.05

Hero (MP1): $27.00

MP2: $22.60

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with K J

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.65) 3 J J (3 players)

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($7.65) 6 (2 players)

Hero bets $4.50, BTN raises to $9, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($25.65) 5 (2 players)

Hero bets $14.90 all in, BTN calls $14.90

Final Pot: $55.45

BTN shows 3 3 (a full house, Threes full of Jacks)

Hero shows K J (three of a kind, Jacks)

BTN wins $52.75

(Rake: $2.70)

———————–

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players

BTN: $100.00

SB: $275.95

BB: $184.00

UTG: $100.00 (16/13, folds to cbet 50%, folds to turn cbet 0% over 270 hands)

MP: $108.80

Hero (CO): $102.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A A

UTG raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, 3 folds, UTG calls $7.50

Flop: ($23.50) 9 9 J (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14

Turn: ($51.50) 9 (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG raises to $50, Hero raises to $75, UTG calls $25 all in

River: ($201.50) 3 (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $201.50

UTG shows 9 T (four of a kind, Nines)

Hero shows A A (a full house, Nines full of Aces)

UTG wins $198.50

Yes, it’s that time of year one again people.  As you might remember I’ve successfully predicted a Stanley Cup winner and a Super Bowl Champion with these in the last 3 years.  So let’s just jump right into it and see who’s coming out on top!

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WILD CARD ROUND:

Jets at Bengals

The Jets pasted the Bengals last week, but this time they play for real and in Cincinnati.  The Jets will be exposed as the pretenders they are who got a free walk into the playoffs.

Prediction: Bengals (4 Seed) defeat the Jets, 24-10

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Ravens at Patriots

A lot of people are predicting that the Ravens have the momentum to defeat New England.  The loss of Welker might be too much for the Pats to overcome, but they are playoff tested.  This isn’t an easy one to pick, but the Patriots have been absolute money at home all year long.  I think they eeeeeek by in this one.

Prediction: Patriots (3 Seed) defeat the Ravens, 27-20

============

Eagles at Cowboys

The Cowboys are hot and have been ever since the Chargers beat them up.  They toasted the Eagles last week and this time they are home.  Is this finally the year that Romo and Wade Phillips finally win a game in the playoffs? Yes.

Prediction: Cowboys (4 Seed) defeat the Eagles, 31-27

============

Packers at Cardinals

The Cardinals have coasted through the regular season somewhat uninspired coming off a beating of their own at the expense of the Packers.  Did the Packers unleash the playbook while the Cards stood pat?  Not at all.  This is the story of a hot team playing against an old, tired team.

Prediction: Packers (5 Seed) defeat the Cardinals, 28-24

==============================

We can finally turn the page on 2009 and what a year it was for poker.  In terms of the industry some pretty big things happened, with some scandals and some huge stakes games played online.  The legal atmosphere didn’t change a bit for us here in the United States as it’s still murky and gray as we await for something to be passed to let us play free and clear once and for all.  We saw Full Tilt Poker grow and grow and become a serious threat to PokerStars as I predicted in June.  The big sites grew more and a few smaller sites are gone.  We’re heading toward a critical mass in online poker with a potential 4-5 huge networks/sites dominating the industry.

For me, 2009 was really a roller coaster in emotion, as the great times were great and the low times were low.  As you all know I love my bullet points …

POSITIVES

• For all the whining and bitching I did in 2009, I actually ran above EV for the year.  So, in terms of that, I ran well.
• Played more hands in 2009 than I did in 2008.
• I made more money in 2009 than I did in 2008.
• I am a better poker player at the end of 2009 than I was in 2008.
• I have a cool blog and picked up a few sweet writing deals that have paid me wonderfully which I am *very* thankful for.
• I was able to stay at 100nl for he entire year and show a marginal win-rate at about 2.5BB/100 over 100k+ hands.

NEGATIVES

• Grossly allowed my emotions and tilt to get in the way of my progress as a player.  This means that it woefully reduced my volume and ability to learn more in the game.
• Failed shot at 200nl really hurt my confidence which swung greatly during the year.
• Failed to initiate any discipline in my game and put a serious plan together for the year or even month-to-month.
• Got too caught up in poker forum drama and too caught up in threads which basically revolved around running bad.

I didn’t spend a lot of time putting those bullet points together because I’m in a rush to update the blog because it’s 4 days late.  I think there’s a lot to be positive about here but I leave feeling really disappointed.  Am I disappointed at the results or the volume or something else? Not really.  I’m actually just disappointed in myself for getting so caught up in the emotional swings of the game and allowing it to reduce me the way it did.  I really think of 2009 as a lost opportunity for me to grow as a player and develop a game worthy of hanging at 200nl.  I really could have been there.  Instead, I’d monkey tilt and be so emotionally frustrated I’d just “quit the game of poker” for what lasted a day instead of take a deep breath and move on and use the opportunity to learn.  So that’s what I’ll leave 2009 as unfortunately, but I think it’s fair to be a bit cynical about it all now that I’ve spent some personal time reflecting.  I am really happy I won and showed a profit and stuck with it in a holistic sense, so there’s a lot to focus on from the positive side of things as well.

What does this mean for 2010 then?  Well, that’s for the next post