Still Debating on Moving … Arg! (Comments Welcome)

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 31, 2009 in rakeback | 7 comments

Alright, so I'm still going back and forth on the debate to move to the new site with 35% rakeback and constant reload bonuses. Basically the way it works (as you can read from the last post) is that it's really one or the other (not both) at that site.

At the estimated calculated rate, I can grind about $400 in bonuses at the new site if I play 18,000 hands at 100nl 6max. On top of that I can probably count on another $50 in bonus money or rakeback leftover, so basically $450 in "rakeback/bonus/whatever" is pretty good. In addition I think my expected win-rate should be higher at this site because the competition is soft, but not THAT much higher because game selection isn't great.

At PokerStars playing at GoldStar Level means basically 12% rakeback and around $185 per month. It takes about 22,000 hands to hit Platinum for a better return so since the previous calculation was done at 18,000 hands per month I have to keep it at that 12% = $185 number.

So in pure dollars one site will return $450 to me for playing there, while another will return $185.

There are other factors, specifically:

• Reward $$ per month (already discussed above)
• Software (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Scripts (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Traffic (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Regulars (Clear advantage for New Site)
• Trust (Clear advantage for PokerStars)

I have been weighing each category and have a spreadsheet with an algrothym and all that fancy jazz.  Basically each one I do comes out a wash.  The debate of "Reward $$ + Bad Regs" = "Software + Scripts + Traffic + Trust" and I can't move either way.

Schools of thought:

1. Move to "New Site" and grind out the bonus (it would take like 10 months to grind out 100% of my bankroll) and see just how soft the competition is and what my expected win-rate would be.  Weigh the advantages of increased reward money + (assumed) higher win-rate over the plusses of PokerStars.
2. Wait to see what the new VIP promotions at PokerStars will be in June and July.  Apparently something is coming but chances are it will simply be another month with an instant cash bonus at the concierge rate.  Grind the 50nl on "New Site" while I play 100nl at Stars, and possibly barely make GoldStar at Stars.
3. Screw the mindgames of rakeback and bonus money and just stick it out at Stars, and make a serious and well planned effort at playing enoug hands to at least make Platinum.

Your thoughts???

What Rakeback Sites Don’t Tell You

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 31, 2009 in rakeback | 1 comment

After going through several rakeback sites as well as the rakeback threads on 2p2 I've discovered quite a bit about the rakeback providers, with much of the information in pieces that never see the light of day together to form a whole picture. Most of this information is something that a person doesn't discover until they're already "sucked in" and signed up. The good news is that these hidden fees and stuff are all pretty universal so it's not just me getting jipped (in my opinion) but overall a shady industry practice.

First, all sites who offer rakeback have hidden deductions. Did you know this? Chances are if you do you learned the same way I did, by wondering how the hell your MGR (monthly gross rake) was so small. Then you email in support for your rakeback site, and they let you know that the poker room deducted 10% of your deposits from your MGR as a "deposit fee" which of course is shown nowhere on the rakeback site. WTF!?

Second, all bonuses made during the month are also deducted from your MGR. Some sites have it at 100%, while others will be instituting 50% (Cereus in June+). So if you get any bonuses that too will be deducted from your MGR, and thus, your rakeback bonus at the end of the month.

Third, the way contributed rake accumulates is a real crappy joke. If you put in anything into the pot (small blind on up) you are entitled to a share of the rake, otherwise, nothing (so you can't be a nit). What this number exactly is, unfortunately, you'll never know since HEM or PT3 can't calculate contributed rake and most rakeback providers only give you your MGR figure after these fees are taken out.

What this means is that a scenario exists where:

1. You do a reload deposit during the month for $500.
2. You unlock $400 of that deposit reload bonus.
3. You accumulated $400 in MGR (gross rake)

Therefore:

$400 in "Raw" MGR
-$50 for a deposit fee
-$200 for 50% bonus deduction fee
--------
$150 in "Counted" MGR

$150 * 30% (typical rakeback number) = $45

So the good news in this scenario is between your bonus ($400) and your rakeback ($45) you've brought in $445 for the month after paying $400 in Raw MGR contributed rake. That's a great number, but this is assuming that there's a reload bonus. What if there is no reload bonus? Let's use the same figures above.

$400 in Raw MGR
$0 Reload Deposit
$0 Bonuses Earned

Then life is easy (we assume) since $400 * 30% = $120

What you have to do then is weigh the bonus systems between the sites... let's compare the #2 and #3 poker rooms for USA players.

Full Tilt Poker = 27% rakeback (dealt), barely ever reload bonuses, every 6 months ironman shit

Cereus = 30% rakeback (contributed), weekly reload bonuses

Basically if you can take advantage of the weekly reload bonuses it'll come out a lot more per month in return to play at Cereus (btw the bonuses are unlocked at about $5 per 225 hands at 100nl 6max). However you have to weigh the difference in traffic, software (one is bad, the other is worse), trust and game selection. The tune seems to change if there is no reload bonus in the equation (BIG time since it's dealt vs contributed rake). Anyways, that's a big giant jumble of what I've been thinking about in terms of rakeback, hopefully there's some gleanings of wisdom in there for you.

(Cruise) Ship It! PokerPro Experience and More.

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 28, 2009 in 50nl, 6max, General, winner | 1 comment

On Sunday morning my wife and I set sail on the beautiful Fun Cruise Ship "Elation" on Carnival Cruises out of San Diego. The cruise was 4 nights and was absolutely awesome. We got a helluva deal because we got a "crappy" room that didn't have a window, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise because the room was conveniently located in the middle of the ship, and totally dark when the lights were out. Because of this dark environment, I never slept better! I also didn't get a claustrophobic feeling because the room was treated with a "fake window" so you still got the sense it wasn't like being stuck in a box.

I know, I know - get to the poker content already! Well, on this cruise ship they have a PokerPro Texas Hold'em poker table which I wrote about originally when we took this same cruise (different destination) in September. Overall it beat not having any poker table, but the poker being played was nothing short of horrible. This time around, I actually ran into people who had played poker before and they got their own side game going in the library using the casino chips and we played a 1-1 blind NL game with no rake. It was a friendly game and a lot of fun and I came away +$20 so that was cool.

The next day I ended up being super bored since my wife was layout out in the sun, so I sat down at the PokerPro table and waited about ... 45 minutes to see my first hand over Jx+. I realized that every time I sat at this table I was quiet, patient and extremely bored. In the typical homegame I'm usually the guy that's the "party animal" who talks a lot which actually gets me "friendly action" consistently when I have a big hand. So I decided to change my approach, to start kidding around and having fun, and man that certainly paid off. First, I started having fun. Then, when I did have a hand, the table felt like puddy in grasp. I played for about 1.5 hours and left up about +$100. Not bad considering the $7/hand rape (I mean RAKE). My favorite hand was the time (I had folded preflop) when there was $115 in the pot, someone when in for their last $20, and the villain with $6 behind folds "because it was just too much" at which point I practically shit myself at hearing such "sound poker" theory.

The next night my wife decided that a great way to wrap up our trip was to play poker together (after some serious partying at the jazz lounge's funk-soul live band concert). So of course, we sit down with 4 of the drunkest bastards I've ever played poker with and all were either in the military or were in active service. This means they were either bragging, fighting or drinking unfortunately. I had a bad feeling but my wife wanted to play (this is a VERY rare thing!) so we played.

For both my wife and I we folded a lot because we both noticed nobody folded ever. We're talking $25 preflop open raises at the $1-$2 table being called by at least 2 people. Craziness right? So I get dealt AQo and make a raise on the button and get two callers, pot is $20. Check-check to me, and I bet $15 and it's called by the small blind on a A-T-5 rainbow flop. Turn is a 9 of hearts for two-toned board and it's checked and I bet $30 and he flats. The river is a Q of hearts and the small blind open shoves for his remaining $40. WTF, seriously. Sickest card right? I hit top two pair at the river, but did this drunk idiot really catch runner-runner flush? He's shown down with mid pair. I have to call. I call. He shows 85 of hearts. Unreal.

I promptly steam. My eyes burn. I imagine him spontaneously combusting into flame. I do my best to sound probing and not pissy in asking him "I bet $15 on that flop and you called with bottom pair, how come?" and he says "Oh not sure, I'm kinda drunk. I guess that was stupid looking at it now." I nod, smile, and remember what Annie Duke said about playing with someone like this - just make them feel happy and comfortable in the game. Eventually, you'll get their money.

Fortunately I stuck around and promptly both my wife and I went on sick runs against our opponents. Long story short she shortstacked into the game for $50 and left with $145 and I not only won my stack back but left with about $40 more. All in all poker profited our little duo around $240 on the trip and ended up paying for all our excursion trips, tips, fees, shopping, drinks and more and we even had a little cash leftover.

Man I love poker

General Update for May

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 22, 2009 in 6max, General | 5 comments

After doing a lot of calculations in the last post and then dipping my toe in the waters of another poker room, i've all but decided to move away from PokerStars.  Don't get me wrong, it's the best poker room out there in a general sense.  It's just for my amount of play and at my level, it doesn't make any sense to play against decent regulars while earning 12% rakeback return when I could be playing against below average regulars while earning ~40% rakeback return (MGR rakeback + bonuses).

Of course, moving to the new site was fun, I won a bit so as an underrolled person I decided to step up to 50nl and promptly got my tail whipped by a slew of sick beats including a couple of AIPFs with QQ and running into AA both times.

That led me to look at QQ this month because it had seemed that I had been running into KK or AA a *ridiculous* amount of times with that hand.

The math shows that I've had QQ an appropriate 0.55% of the time, and when I have QQ I have run into AA or KK a whopping 18% of the time.  At 6max, that's just more than triple what it should be, but my math is real sketchy so I might look into it.  However, I'm probably better off ignoring that for good mental health.

So, I'm going to quit playing at the new site until I transfer more money over there to be at least remotely appropraitely rolled for the levels I will play at.  In the meantime I will stick it out at Stars and play there. I don't know if I'll even make GoldStar this month, that's how little I've been playing.  June promises to be a much more normalized month so we'll see how that goes.  Of course, I have to leave you with one of my shitty hands from my new site

Rakeback at PokerStars Calculated Out

Posted by icemonkey9 on May 19, 2009 in moving | 3 comments

So the tables are going pretty well, although I have put in an anemic amount of hands in.  I was chatting with Custo via emails and he said he's going SNG pro, which is cool.  He said that 5-8% is the ROI all had by the "big shots" so I decided to have some fun and 4-table $5 9-man SNGs.  OMG it was the most frustrating experience ever.  I bubbled in 4th in 3 of them and won the 4th one.  $22 in buy-ins and ended up taking home $22.50 for a +$0.50 effort.

I would have made more ITMs but there was a cataclysmic collapse as chip leader at one table.  It was seriously the weirdest thing I have ever seen.  As the big time chip leader at like 7,000 a guy with 1,500 goes all in preflop and I call with QQ, and he shows KK and it holds up.  Then I am playing and back up to like 6,000 and get it all in with AA against the 2nd in chips who had like 4,500 who shows ... KJ offsuit.  Flop comes JJ4 and I am down to 1,500.  Then I get it in with KK and the villain shows ... GET THIS ... f'ing 36 offsuit ... and he hits an f'ing straight.  So that was that particular SNG and I think anyone that plays them professionally (Custo you better read this) had better expect a lot more gray hair on their head (or for it to fall out completely).

There's been some talk about hidden rakeback deals and affiliate deals, etc etc going around.  People are basically tired of PokerStars if they are not SuperNova and I am definitely amongst them.  So I did some calculations of my own to figure out what my amount of volume gets me.  I play roughly 20,000 hands at 100nl which unfortunately is enough to be GoldStar but not PlatinumStar.  So....

20,000 Hands @ 100nl on PokerStars (grants GoldStar Access)

= ~$1,200 amount in rake paid

= 12,400 FPPs earned (0.31 VPPs/hand * 2 @ Goldstar)

= 49.6% FPPs earned towards the $285 25k FPP bonus
->> Approximately $142.50 Paid in Rakeback per month

GoldStar @ PokerStars = ~12% rakeback

Bleh.  12% kinda sucks, although in May (and rumored for June) were the instant cash bonuses at the conceirge rate which was awesome.  That definitely bumps it up, but I didn't calculate how much.

To put it in perspective, at Absolute Poker, the rake rate looks about the same (at least for non-jackpot tables) as it's $0.05 for every $1 in the pot up to a max of $3 at a 6+ player table.

With Rakeback ...  35% @ Absolute = $420

Also keep in mind that Absolute runs reload deposit bonuses regularly and has a $500 first timer deposit.  If promotions like the current $500 reload bonus were a regular thing (it is btw), I might be looking at ~$900 a month just in "rakeback+bonuses" plus there's a points-for-cash system at Absolute as well.  Meaning that if I played breakeven I could take in a grand a month ... AND the competition is wholeheartedly softer than Stars (confirmed with multiple sources who have played 100nl+ games).

I think I just gave myself a damn fine argument to move sites.  However let's think of the things that PokerStars does better than a site like Absolute Poker...

• Solid History of fine customer service (however AP now has 24/7 live chat customer service)
• Solid History of not having multi-accounts or huge scandals (although that's in the past and from what I hear from a source in Costa Rica, AP is *extremely* dedicated to security now)
• Best site software in the business
• Best site add-ons for customizing tables and decks, as well as neat features like table highlighting/betpot

So I guess I am asking myself, after I burn my current cache of FPPs, is what incentive do I have to stay at PokerStars.  Are the positives worth more than the positives of another site?  That's the big question I'm pondering, and I feel myself leaning in one definite direction.