Poker Blog – icemonkey9 on PokerStars

Alright, so I’m still going back and forth on the debate to move to the new site with 35% rakeback and constant reload bonuses. Basically the way it works (as you can read from the last post) is that it’s really one or the other (not both) at that site.

At the estimated calculated rate, I can grind about $400 in bonuses at the new site if I play 18,000 hands at 100nl 6max. On top of that I can probably count on another $50 in bonus money or rakeback leftover, so basically $450 in “rakeback/bonus/whatever” is pretty good. In addition I think my expected win-rate should be higher at this site because the competition is soft, but not THAT much higher because game selection isn’t great.

At PokerStars playing at GoldStar Level means basically 12% rakeback and around $185 per month. It takes about 22,000 hands to hit Platinum for a better return so since the previous calculation was done at 18,000 hands per month I have to keep it at that 12% = $185 number.

So in pure dollars one site will return $450 to me for playing there, while another will return $185.

There are other factors, specifically:

• Reward $$ per month (already discussed above)
• Software (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Scripts (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Traffic (Clear advantage for PokerStars)
• Regulars (Clear advantage for New Site)
• Trust (Clear advantage for PokerStars)

I have been weighing each category and have a spreadsheet with an algrothym and all that fancy jazz.  Basically each one I do comes out a wash.  The debate of “Reward $$ + Bad Regs” = “Software + Scripts + Traffic + Trust” and I can’t move either way.

Schools of thought:

1. Move to “New Site” and grind out the bonus (it would take like 10 months to grind out 100% of my bankroll) and see just how soft the competition is and what my expected win-rate would be.  Weigh the advantages of increased reward money + (assumed) higher win-rate over the plusses of PokerStars.
2. Wait to see what the new VIP promotions at PokerStars will be in June and July.  Apparently something is coming but chances are it will simply be another month with an instant cash bonus at the concierge rate.  Grind the 50nl on “New Site” while I play 100nl at Stars, and possibly barely make GoldStar at Stars.
3. Screw the mindgames of rakeback and bonus money and just stick it out at Stars, and make a serious and well planned effort at playing enoug hands to at least make Platinum.

Your thoughts???

After going through several rakeback sites as well as the rakeback threads on 2p2 I’ve discovered quite a bit about the rakeback providers, with much of the information in pieces that never see the light of day together to form a whole picture. Most of this information is something that a person doesn’t discover until they’re already “sucked in” and signed up. The good news is that these hidden fees and stuff are all pretty universal so it’s not just me getting jipped (in my opinion) but overall a shady industry practice.

First, all sites who offer rakeback have hidden deductions. Did you know this? Chances are if you do you learned the same way I did, by wondering how the hell your MGR (monthly gross rake) was so small. Then you email in support for your rakeback site, and they let you know that the poker room deducted 10% of your deposits from your MGR as a “deposit fee” which of course is shown nowhere on the rakeback site. WTF!?

Second, all bonuses made during the month are also deducted from your MGR. Some sites have it at 100%, while others will be instituting 50% (Cereus in June+). So if you get any bonuses that too will be deducted from your MGR, and thus, your rakeback bonus at the end of the month.

Third, the way contributed rake accumulates is a real crappy joke. If you put in anything into the pot (small blind on up) you are entitled to a share of the rake, otherwise, nothing (so you can’t be a nit). What this number exactly is, unfortunately, you’ll never know since HEM or PT3 can’t calculate contributed rake and most rakeback providers only give you your MGR figure after these fees are taken out.

What this means is that a scenario exists where:

1. You do a reload deposit during the month for $500.
2. You unlock $400 of that deposit reload bonus.
3. You accumulated $400 in MGR (gross rake)

Therefore:

$400 in “Raw” MGR
-$50 for a deposit fee
-$200 for 50% bonus deduction fee
——–
$150 in “Counted” MGR

$150 * 30% (typical rakeback number) = $45

So the good news in this scenario is between your bonus ($400) and your rakeback ($45) you’ve brought in $445 for the month after paying $400 in Raw MGR contributed rake. That’s a great number, but this is assuming that there’s a reload bonus. What if there is no reload bonus? Let’s use the same figures above.

$400 in Raw MGR
$0 Reload Deposit
$0 Bonuses Earned

Then life is easy (we assume) since $400 * 30% = $120

What you have to do then is weigh the bonus systems between the sites… let’s compare the #2 and #3 poker rooms for USA players.

Full Tilt Poker = 27% rakeback (dealt), barely ever reload bonuses, every 6 months ironman shit

Cereus = 30% rakeback (contributed), weekly reload bonuses

Basically if you can take advantage of the weekly reload bonuses it’ll come out a lot more per month in return to play at Cereus (btw the bonuses are unlocked at about $5 per 225 hands at 100nl 6max). However you have to weigh the difference in traffic, software (one is bad, the other is worse), trust and game selection. The tune seems to change if there is no reload bonus in the equation (BIG time since it’s dealt vs contributed rake). Anyways, that’s a big giant jumble of what I’ve been thinking about in terms of rakeback, hopefully there’s some gleanings of wisdom in there for you.

On Sunday morning my wife and I set sail on the beautiful Fun Cruise Ship “Elation” on Carnival Cruises out of San Diego. The cruise was 4 nights and was absolutely awesome. We got a helluva deal because we got a “crappy” room that didn’t have a window, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise because the room was conveniently located in the middle of the ship, and totally dark when the lights were out. Because of this dark environment, I never slept better! I also didn’t get a claustrophobic feeling because the room was treated with a “fake window” so you still got the sense it wasn’t like being stuck in a box.

I know, I know – get to the poker content already! Well, on this cruise ship they have a PokerPro Texas Hold’em poker table which I wrote about originally when we took this same cruise (different destination) in September. Overall it beat not having any poker table, but the poker being played was nothing short of horrible. This time around, I actually ran into people who had played poker before and they got their own side game going in the library using the casino chips and we played a 1-1 blind NL game with no rake. It was a friendly game and a lot of fun and I came away +$20 so that was cool.

The next day I ended up being super bored since my wife was layout out in the sun, so I sat down at the PokerPro table and waited about … 45 minutes to see my first hand over Jx+. I realized that every time I sat at this table I was quiet, patient and extremely bored. In the typical homegame I’m usually the guy that’s the “party animal” who talks a lot which actually gets me “friendly action” consistently when I have a big hand. So I decided to change my approach, to start kidding around and having fun, and man that certainly paid off. First, I started having fun. Then, when I did have a hand, the table felt like puddy in grasp. I played for about 1.5 hours and left up about +$100. Not bad considering the $7/hand rape (I mean RAKE). My favorite hand was the time (I had folded preflop) when there was $115 in the pot, someone when in for their last $20, and the villain with $6 behind folds “because it was just too much” at which point I practically shit myself at hearing such “sound poker” theory.

The next night my wife decided that a great way to wrap up our trip was to play poker together (after some serious partying at the jazz lounge’s funk-soul live band concert). So of course, we sit down with 4 of the drunkest bastards I’ve ever played poker with and all were either in the military or were in active service. This means they were either bragging, fighting or drinking unfortunately. I had a bad feeling but my wife wanted to play (this is a VERY rare thing!) so we played.

For both my wife and I we folded a lot because we both noticed nobody folded ever. We’re talking $25 preflop open raises at the $1-$2 table being called by at least 2 people. Craziness right? So I get dealt AQo and make a raise on the button and get two callers, pot is $20. Check-check to me, and I bet $15 and it’s called by the small blind on a A-T-5 rainbow flop. Turn is a 9 of hearts for two-toned board and it’s checked and I bet $30 and he flats. The river is a Q of hearts and the small blind open shoves for his remaining $40. WTF, seriously. Sickest card right? I hit top two pair at the river, but did this drunk idiot really catch runner-runner flush? He’s shown down with mid pair. I have to call. I call. He shows 85 of hearts. Unreal.

I promptly steam. My eyes burn. I imagine him spontaneously combusting into flame. I do my best to sound probing and not pissy in asking him “I bet $15 on that flop and you called with bottom pair, how come?” and he says “Oh not sure, I’m kinda drunk. I guess that was stupid looking at it now.” I nod, smile, and remember what Annie Duke said about playing with someone like this – just make them feel happy and comfortable in the game. Eventually, you’ll get their money.

Fortunately I stuck around and promptly both my wife and I went on sick runs against our opponents. Long story short she shortstacked into the game for $50 and left with $145 and I not only won my stack back but left with about $40 more. All in all poker profited our little duo around $240 on the trip and ended up paying for all our excursion trips, tips, fees, shopping, drinks and more and we even had a little cash leftover.

Man I love poker

After doing a lot of calculations in the last post and then dipping my toe in the waters of another poker room, i’ve all but decided to move away from PokerStars.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s the best poker room out there in a general sense.  It’s just for my amount of play and at my level, it doesn’t make any sense to play against decent regulars while earning 12% rakeback return when I could be playing against below average regulars while earning ~40% rakeback return (MGR rakeback + bonuses).

Of course, moving to the new site was fun, I won a bit so as an underrolled person I decided to step up to 50nl and promptly got my tail whipped by a slew of sick beats including a couple of AIPFs with QQ and running into AA both times.

That led me to look at QQ this month because it had seemed that I had been running into KK or AA a *ridiculous* amount of times with that hand.

The math shows that I’ve had QQ an appropriate 0.55% of the time, and when I have QQ I have run into AA or KK a whopping 18% of the time.  At 6max, that’s just more than triple what it should be, but my math is real sketchy so I might look into it.  However, I’m probably better off ignoring that for good mental health.

So, I’m going to quit playing at the new site until I transfer more money over there to be at least remotely appropraitely rolled for the levels I will play at.  In the meantime I will stick it out at Stars and play there. I don’t know if I’ll even make GoldStar this month, that’s how little I’ve been playing.  June promises to be a much more normalized month so we’ll see how that goes.  Of course, I have to leave you with one of my shitty hands from my new site

So the tables are going pretty well, although I have put in an anemic amount of hands in.  I was chatting with Custo via emails and he said he’s going SNG pro, which is cool.  He said that 5-8% is the ROI all had by the “big shots” so I decided to have some fun and 4-table $5 9-man SNGs.  OMG it was the most frustrating experience ever.  I bubbled in 4th in 3 of them and won the 4th one.  $22 in buy-ins and ended up taking home $22.50 for a +$0.50 effort.

I would have made more ITMs but there was a cataclysmic collapse as chip leader at one table.  It was seriously the weirdest thing I have ever seen.  As the big time chip leader at like 7,000 a guy with 1,500 goes all in preflop and I call with QQ, and he shows KK and it holds up.  Then I am playing and back up to like 6,000 and get it all in with AA against the 2nd in chips who had like 4,500 who shows … KJ offsuit.  Flop comes JJ4 and I am down to 1,500.  Then I get it in with KK and the villain shows … GET THIS … f’ing 36 offsuit … and he hits an f’ing straight.  So that was that particular SNG and I think anyone that plays them professionally (Custo you better read this) had better expect a lot more gray hair on their head (or for it to fall out completely).

There’s been some talk about hidden rakeback deals and affiliate deals, etc etc going around.  People are basically tired of PokerStars if they are not SuperNova and I am definitely amongst them.  So I did some calculations of my own to figure out what my amount of volume gets me.  I play roughly 20,000 hands at 100nl which unfortunately is enough to be GoldStar but not PlatinumStar.  So….

20,000 Hands @ 100nl on PokerStars (grants GoldStar Access)

= ~$1,200 amount in rake paid

= 12,400 FPPs earned (0.31 VPPs/hand * 2 @ Goldstar)

= 49.6% FPPs earned towards the $285 25k FPP bonus
->> Approximately $142.50 Paid in Rakeback per month

GoldStar @ PokerStars = ~12% rakeback

Bleh.  12% kinda sucks, although in May (and rumored for June) were the instant cash bonuses at the conceirge rate which was awesome.  That definitely bumps it up, but I didn’t calculate how much.

To put it in perspective, at Absolute Poker, the rake rate looks about the same (at least for non-jackpot tables) as it’s $0.05 for every $1 in the pot up to a max of $3 at a 6+ player table.

With Rakeback …  35% @ Absolute = $420

Also keep in mind that Absolute runs reload deposit bonuses regularly and has a $500 first timer deposit.  If promotions like the current $500 reload bonus were a regular thing (it is btw), I might be looking at ~$900 a month just in “rakeback+bonuses” plus there’s a points-for-cash system at Absolute as well.  Meaning that if I played breakeven I could take in a grand a month … AND the competition is wholeheartedly softer than Stars (confirmed with multiple sources who have played 100nl+ games).

I think I just gave myself a damn fine argument to move sites.  However let’s think of the things that PokerStars does better than a site like Absolute Poker…

• Solid History of fine customer service (however AP now has 24/7 live chat customer service)
• Solid History of not having multi-accounts or huge scandals (although that’s in the past and from what I hear from a source in Costa Rica, AP is *extremely* dedicated to security now)
• Best site software in the business
• Best site add-ons for customizing tables and decks, as well as neat features like table highlighting/betpot

So I guess I am asking myself, after I burn my current cache of FPPs, is what incentive do I have to stay at PokerStars.  Are the positives worth more than the positives of another site?  That’s the big question I’m pondering, and I feel myself leaning in one definite direction.

Last Friday was a bloody session that pretty much wiped out the profits I had made at 50nl. Nasty stuff and “one of those days” of the month we all have.  The recap:

Crappy Stuff (-$20 or more)

• QQ<KK aipf (-68)
• QQ<KK aipf (-50)
• AK<JJ aipf (-35)
• AT<QJ (turn 2 pair vs straight, villain 65/0/2) (-26)
• AJ<66 (he hits set) (-22)
• AK suited < AA aipf (-30)
• JJ<67 (hit OESD by calling down to river) (-31)

Good Stuff (+$20 or more):

AJs > 84s (top two pair vs pair of 8s) (+30)
JJ>KK (hit set at flop) (+24)

Anyways, with that behind me, today I finished my 5,000 hand experiment “Warm Up” at 50nl to start the month.  I’ve accumulated 1,000 VPPs so far and need 995 more to unlock the $285 cash bonus I bought on the first.

Analyzing the 50nl experience:

- Wow I played nitty. Super nitty. I think that was a reflection of having way too many loose cally types on my left constantly at this level.

- Despite the crash-landing on Friday I still played at 1.5BB/100 which is sad, but winning, and if you take Friday out I was around 8BB/100 but woulda-coulda-shoulda.

- Not sure if I’ll do it again next month.  I just don’t think after the 5k hands are over if the time spent at the level was worth it to keep my game sharp plus give me some confidence.

So that sums up the month so far … 5k hands at a level below where I should be and not much in profits.  Doesn’t sound exciting does it?  (That’s because it isn’t.)

Today was a pretty historic day in online poker history as Congressman Barney Frank finally introduced his bill to legalize online gambling to raise money for the federal government for a regulated industry. Individual States could add their own tax as well as simply “opt out” to make it illegal within their state boarders.

I have yet to read through all the forum threads and bill itself. There’s the argument that “some legality is better than none!” while others are saying the even if this passes they are screwed because sites are more likely to increase rake (too high already if you ask me) and some states like Washington and Minnesota are a lock to ban online poker if given the right to opt out. That does SUCK, but I think it’d be a matter of time before those states would buckle under the pressure to find new tax revenue streams and have their neighbors bring in millions a year while they enjoy the fun of opting out of a lucrative amount of money.

Here in California, we’re a sure lock to have legalized online poker, and even have in-state sites which really have the potential to have some ridiculous action. For anyone that has played at the casinos out here they know that California cash game players at a live casino are straight up retarded gamblers, so I am all for playing those jabronis online any day of the week.

As far as poker goes, because I’ve been at my Mom’s place visiting since my sister and nephew are in town I’m starting the month playing 50nl 6max to avoid “beginning of the month” tilt issues and because I don’t have my “main place of play” all set up. As it is I’ve been winning decently but a bad beat and a cooler have me grateful it wasn’t for a $100 stack! I have the bad beat below, it’s straight up nasty. The cooler was in the form of 88 hitting a set and losing to 99 for a bigger set for a $50 stack which sucked but totally standard.

Tomorrow I have a coaching session with ChuckTs which will be great and I’ll probably wrap up by 50nl 6max experience and head to the 100nl tables and ideally be on top of my game.

The Good: A Set Wins!

This is a pretty standard hand with a pocket pair. I get it in with a set and it holds up. Ship the stack baby!

The Ugly: Pure Nasty

The good news is that statistically speaking if you play enough poker, someone will hit a runner-runner on you and win, and it happened to me and only cost me $17ish, rather than $100 at my usual stakes. The bad news is that this guy actually did hit a required runner-runner to win the hand which was nasty. He had the class to chat “omg, sorry” which was cool. I just replied “nasty” and thanked the stars that it was only for a real minimum amount of money.

So I moved down to 50nl 6max as kind of a warm up for this month. I had seen in previous months starting out down 4 to 8 buyins off the bat was a bad tilter, so I thought the easier stakes would make for a good fresh start, and looks like I was right.

First, I have yet to run into a good solid regular at the stakes.  Second, there are a ton more fish than at 100nl. Frankly, anyone that does an analysis right now between 50nl and 100nl 6max and says the usual, “A fewer more fish, and a few more solid regs” would be completely unobservant in my strict opinion.

So, I bought that May bonus which was great, and then I bought the GoldStar $285 bonus which I am working off now.  I plan to put in about 4k hands at 50nl 6max to start the month and then move back to my usual stakes.  Playing with 100+ buyins at a level is kind of fun I admit   Let’s take a look at the good, bad and ugly so far in May.

The Good

You might have a bit of Deja Vu from last month! This time, at the lower stakes of course, the KK holds up and I win a nice pot.

The Bad

Same hand, much different result

The VERY Ugly

I dare anyone that reads this blog regularly to look through their PT3 or HEM database and find all the hands they flatted out of position in a 3bet pot and won the hand. I double dare you lol … so yeah just an incredible luck-out situation by the villain here who flatted the 3bet out of position with apparent monster K6 suited and hit two pair against my TPTK. The villain was a 63/13/inf after a whopping 8 hands, and yes … he left as soon as the hand ended. I remember these guys, I call them leprechauns!

Anyways, I am enjoying poker at the moment and being up so far in May is a good thing too. I think this new strategy of “starting the month off right” can be a big booster for the confidence and I think I might make it a regular thing.

Unless you live in a cave you’ve probably heard about the amazing promotion PokerStars is running that basically gives SuperNova status for 2009 for all players in the UK if they play to a platinum level in May.  This equates basically to a free $2,100 in “rakeback” which makes it just about the best promotion PokerStars has ever run in the 1.5 years I’ve been on or following the site.  Unfortunately, it sent the rest of the world in an uproar, myself included.

My beef basically is that this promotion doesn’t bring any new “fish” to the site, just rewards the good players from the UK and gets them to play more.  Secondly, by not offering the promotion to the rest of the entire EARTH, they’ve managed to upset a lot of people (specifically US players who have yet to have a single promotion of their own).  I was in a chat thread at a popular site where Jurn8 basically boiled down the argument to (btw he is from the UK) PokerStars being able to do something like this for UK players and not include the USA players because those players from the United States don’t have a choice in where to play, so PokerStars can treat them any way they like.

Well, that was exactly my point in the argument.  If PokerStars is going to give preferential treatment to a certain segment of consumers and exclude others (publically mind you), how loyal are the segmented consumers going to be?  Not at all.  In the USA it’s only a matter of time before online poker is legalized, and when it does, regular poker players will remember things like this indicent when sites like iPoker and PartyPoker come back and offer huge promotions to come back to their sites.  A loyal customer group would stay, and a disloyal group would leave – it’s that simple.

Zach, a good guy and an online friend who plays 200nl+, basically said all the whining (he is from the USA) is akin to one kid bitching about having a worse lunch than another kid.  I couldn’t disagree more.  My business mind says that this is actually akin to a business offering a “special discount” to a customer base while making sure it’s biggest customer knows about it but not offering the same discount.  In business, this always leads to disaster; you simply cannot offer lesser clients a bigger discount (in this case rakeback) while your biggest client knows about it and offering them nothing at the same time.

This week I’m hoping to get in touch with the PR guy from PokerStars and get an interview to run on one of the sites I write for, it’ll be interesting what their response is.  And I’m not buying the whole “we’re testing this promotion for the rest of the world” smoke-up-our-ass.

Anyways, where I have to be critical of PokerStars, I also have to praise them to be fair.  They ran a special “May Instant Bonus” promotion (available to the world mind you) where for 11,500 FPPs you basically get $185 in instant cash (which I have taken advantage of thank you!).  This comes at a good time in light of my tilt-a-thon 22-tabling massacre at 50nl!  Also I bought the 25,000 FPP cash bonus of $285 which will hopefully be unlocked around the middle of the month, so I’m looking at $470 in bonuses which is fabulous.  I have about 15,000 FPPs left, so by the end of this month I should be able to buy another $285 bonus award.

Anyways, I’ve taken the last 2 days off completely and doubt I will play today.  I have spent some time watching Stox videos specific to 100nl 6max, and I am hoping the first session with ChuckTs is scheduled soon.  That’s it for now!

Following the spewtastic ending to March was a drop off in April that saw me drop about $500 just right out of the gate that really set the tone for me for April. I just really didn’t get over that tilt-hump for a long time and played at a really crappy level enjoying coolers and failing to make solid laydowns. I moved to 6max fulltime which I enjoyed, and started out playing some great poker and enjoyed a bit of a heater and actually got myself back into the green for the month. Alas, I got into some trouble, hit some spots where I stacked off in the right situations and came out a loser, and found myself stuck yet again.

Finally, in a sad attempt to try to hit Platinum, I experimented with 22 tabling 50nl Fullring. The experience was actually kind of fun and I felt like I could actually handle the action. What I couldn’t handle was the coolers and bad beats. KK all in preflop verses AA twice! AA stacks off on a Jxx board at the flop against KJ and the villain spikes a J river for a stack. Set under set … twice. All in the course of 1,800 hands and thus immediately ending my April Platinum run a mere 650 VPPs short of the goal. It was really just “one of those days” where nothing went right but losing another $250 just in that stupid bit of time tilting me off good.

APRIL RESULTS: -$671

So I’ve officially had my worst month ever, my first true “losing month” overall and my second consecutive losing month at the cash game tables.  It’s a far cry from January where I saw my first four-digit profit month but I have confidence that solid poker and in turn, profits, are not far away.

MAY GOALS

- Focus on 6max
- Write down weekly goals for study (videos, notes, research)
- At least 3 coaching sessions (ideally 4) with ChuckTs
- Steady as she goes