Ever Been Curious About What it Would Take to Go Pro?

Posted by icemonkey9 on Oct 13, 2008 in General | 0 comments

On the forums, from friends, and on chat I get asked by people that don't play a lot of poker or don't play cash games what stakes you have to play and how much you would have to play to actually "go pro" and do it for a living. I've never given it a second thought and answered "I don't know and don't care" right up until ChuckTs made 9k last month and raised the bar for every single cash game player at CardsChat. A bunch of us are trying to smash our old records for number of hands played, and I'm already close (9 days in) to setting my month-high.

First lets make some premises and assumptions for looking at this closely.

• Premise 1: Let's assume that per table you can play 80 hands per hour. It has been reported that 90 to 100 all the way down to 60 is average so I am just going with 80.
• Premise 2: Lets assume you can play 8 tables at a time. Some people play 6 and other top players play as many as 16 or even 24. The 8 is on the "conservative side" of things.
• Assumption 1: 80 hands per hour * 8 tables = 640 hands per hour
• Premise 3: We will include rakeback (defined as traditional rakeback OR FPP-sattys sold for $) in the estimated bb/100 win rate. This is to make things simpler on me right now for this post.
• Premise 4: Your win rate will be 3bb/100. A bb means "big bet" which translates into 2x the big blind. This 3bb/100 includes rakeback, meaning it's actually a somewhat conservative win rate even for medium cash game stakes. For a guideline, I have averaged 5.7bb/100 at 25nl FR and 6.7bb/100 at 25nl 6max, and so far 3.5bb/100 at 50nl FR.

From these 4 premises and 1 assumption, let's figure you need an income of $5,000 per month (this is pre tax) to survive ... either you are a serious baller student or a "real life" person with a family. Whatever.

• If you play 50nl, 3bb/100 = $3 per 100 hands. To make $5,000 you would need to play 166,667 hands of poker in a month. To play 166k hands, you would have to play for 260 hours a month, which translates to 65 hours per week of playing poker (aka "work").

• If you play 100nl, 3bb/100 = $6 per 100 hands. To make $5k you have to play 83,333 hands for the month, meaning about 32.5 hours per week of playing poker (aka "work").
• If you play 200nl, 3bb/100 = $12 per 100 hands. To make $5k you would have to play 41,500 hands in the month, meaning about 16 hours per week of playing poker (aka "work").

This actually makes it sound pretty doable playing 100nl+ but obviously a whole new lifestyle would be a part of your life. Certain bankroll measures would have to be in place, meaning things like building up a double or even triple roll for your given limit would have to be in place so you can withdrawl even if you hit a horrible downswing.

With traffic rising on pokerstars (probably due to people being out of work) and legislature moving towards allowing US players to play online poker, maybe this IS something good players should viably be looking at!

1,238 Hands on Friday

Posted by icemonkey9 on Oct 11, 2008 in General | 1 comment

Yesterday I didn't play "all that much" but it was plainly obvious that I was not used to the Fishy Friday crowd. It means more profits in the long term but definitely more volatility also. There were some spots I missed reads on where I called when I should have and some spots I should have raised. I started to tilt and cut the night short ... still had a "winning day" but it wasn't even a buy in.

"Show me that Ace you ... Oh MUTHA$(@$^"

This pretty much summed up the day. I was very close to breakeven for a few sessions because of stuff like this.

And this ...

Gross. I hate these shortstackers. They don't know what they are doing and hit.

1,550 Hands + A Couple of Milestones

Posted by icemonkey9 on Oct 10, 2008 in General | 1 comment

Today I put in 1,550 hands even though it seems I didn't play that much. I hit a big bankroll milestone and to celebrate, I freerolled into a $11 MTT 6max which i was CRUSHING. The game was so bad it was a joke ... and the bad play meant *nobody* was folding anything ... so I failed to raise 88 in the CO when everyone limped in ... hit my set ... and the villain hit the 57 straight on the turn for my stack. Ugly ugly ... and it sucks because I was sharing the profits with friends from CardsChat and also helping Maggie the Dog, and now I will be unable to. However I'll try to get into the fundraiser tournament to help.

On the flip side I was able to put in back to back profitable days and win at a good rate again today. It just makes all the difference in the world when you run at 10-11% set percentage as opposed to 4% like I did for the first 6 days of the month.

Another milestone is that I hit 10,000 hands already for the month ... absoultely remarkable. I am "on pace" by my estimates for 20,000 hands this month because next week I will not be able to even play half of what I did this week for work purposes. Work *always* comes second to family of course too

So here are some hands, enjoy...

Biggest Pot I've Ever Won

I tanked this call at the turn for a good 35 seconds. I mean ... what the F does he have!??! 5? 6? Either beats me and I only am on a 2 outer. I just figured, any PP from 7-above is possible ... I had no reads ... any flush draw was possible. CALL. WIN. Fist Pumper 2000.

AA Big Pot

The last 2 days have seen my AA get action and that coupled with hitting some well timed sets (like here) have meant I am making money. It almost seems like playing "poker" will make you marginally profitable and add in "big hand wins" and you're crushing it.

At Least It Wasn't a Full Stack for Suckout City Central

All aboard. The silver lining is that this happens and the damage is minimal ... and in this case it's only half a stack. This guy drove me nuts. You'll see why in the next hand.

Good Read or Good Guess or Bad?

Same villain as above who has shown no real ability to play poker or operate a mouse. He ended up being 51/21/2 (111 hands!!!) but at the time was like 43/20/1. He was handing his stacks out left and right ... only problem was he kept hitting against me. He min-bet donks into me, and I get REAL wary. He had never done this after 30 minutes. Not once after ALL the hands he's been in. I mean really ... he have something like 99 or Jx?! This was more of a feeler bet than anything. He bets into me AGAIN. Wow...time to flat and just see a cheap river ... dying to know what this jabroni is doing this with (maybe a straight draw he just hit at the turn!??). Of course I make a great check (obv to good player) at the river. He shows J3. Wow.

1,461 Hands – "You Run Horrible No More Mon!"

Posted by icemonkey9 on Oct 9, 2008 in General | 0 comments

Today was a day of victories in poker at the cash tables. It started off with Mr.Sticker sweating me at 50nl and running well ... it then translated to a total of 7 sessions, 6 of which were profitable. Today was a day of wins. There was one suckout that I played so poorly that my cat won't even look at me ... so I know at least I'm not perfect Today felt great, and ideally this good karma, positive energy, good outlook, and positivity follows through for tomorrow.

We're about 25% through October now, and I've registered 8,223 hands at 50nl. Remember the goal is 20k so I am ahead of the pace ... however there are going to days where I can't play at all so when I do have "alone time" like now I need to put in the hands to make it all possible. I am also almost half way to Gold Star status.

Some hands...

Thanks For Hanging Yourself Bud

Basically this is a hand where the other player was out of control and decided to run the worst triple barrel semi-bluff in 50nl history. I turn the 2nd nuts so I really don't gain much by raising the turn since I'm hoping he hits a flush at the river. He decided to bluff the flush (I guess?) and hand me his money. I can see this now (why this one is posted) but I really over-slowplayed this one thinking (which was a right read) that he was going to hang himself because he just KEPT betting so FAST and so much. But that turn really should have been a raise and that river was by NO means an easy call.

AA ... I wish it was always this easy. (Heater)

This hand ... wow. This guy decided to squeeze at the wrong time. I min raised here because stacking off might get him to fold hands like JJ or QQ and min raising here looks either SUPER weak or SUPER strong and I wanted him to think he's committed himself. That's what happened.

Fish Handing Out Money ATM Style

I took about $50 off this guy in about 8 minutes in 3 hands. He was something like 73/5/1.

EEEWwwwwwwww

I've got tens in the SB and this guy has a 35% steal number so I decided to stand up to him and he calls. Here's where my brain explodes with stupidity:
1) I dont cbet this. Mistake with the set.
2) I dont raise HIS bet. WTF??!!?!
I can't even explain what happened, I guess I got tired or distracted. I dont remember this hand too much. I just did this perpectual slow play c/r thing and he hits his gin gutshot on the turn and I don't hit the boat on the river and lose a lot when I should have just taken it on the flop. bad play by the icemonkey.

1,812 Hands. "You run horrible"

Posted by icemonkey9 on Oct 8, 2008 in General | 0 comments

I showed off some of my hands to a few friends and they both said the identical thing back to me via AIM.

"You run horrible"

I was about to tell bw07507 that I was beginning to understand what he was going through a couple of months ago. From memory he hit this ridiculously nasty 30 or 40k stretch where he just couldn't win. If he won a hand the next hand he had AA cracked. It was beyond unfair ... and it just seems like I'm beginning to comprehend what that is like. Fortunately, I am not running as bad as he did since I am still winning some hands here and there, however I am losing which is not really all that exciting. But profitability wasn't the goal of the month - it was bulk and playing smart.

I've posted some of the hands on CC and fortunately enough I've not been reading "Icemonkey they should call you ICE DONKEY" but more like "crappy spot you're screwed" kind of things with advice along the lines of what I did do, so I know I'm playing it somewhat correctly.

Anyways, I would have put in a couple of more sessions today, but at 6:15pm the power for entire neighborhood block went out thanks to some traffic accident. Here's some of the interesting beats, wins, and tough spots...

AA Cracked by ShortStacking Setminer

Maybe this guy read my "how to play small pocket pairs" article on PokerHandReplays.com , but he's putting the practice to the theory incorrectly with his half-stack buyin. Ugh.

99 Wins a Stack

Villain is unknown ... I like my play here I was aggressive with 99 and didn't slowplay anything and got full value for my hand.

Posted This Hand ... AK to not so enticing River

Just yuck. I think this hand might show how much I've grown since I really recognized that this was a bad bad spot and absolutely not one to raise. I agonized with the call.

4Bet Failure vs Maniac folded at PF

I call him a maniac, but he was only 43/29/inf over 7 hands so it's really me playing a guy in the dark. AQs here ... probably not good by any stretch of the imagination.

Got Outplayed + I Suck = Lost Stack

Maybe this belongs on WV's "Worst Hand I Played" if I had that section. To be honest, I was *stunned* to look back and see AA flat the first preflop raise, then min-raise my 3bet. I think I've seen that before once and it was something like 88. I really really thought about shoving there on the flop. But I wanted to see what the flop would bring, and I was in a WA/WB situation (maybe barely ahead, way behind). I throw in a bet at the turn to guage really where I am more than anything and he flats. Middle pair? Flush draw? Slowplayed K? I make the disastrous move of shoving ... and with that board, a bad move.

KK in WA/WB Situation Played Well (I think at least)

Villain here is a 11/5/inf over 174 hands. I recognize a WA/WB situation and absoultely do not cbet it. I am not sure why he played it so passively to the river, but I am guessing that he saw the same thing I did - all the draws filled!

Just the Right River Bet?

With me filling up on the river and no longer scared of a straight, I thought about what might be the right amount. What's the best value bet here. I didn't think a stackoff would get called so I made it a nice round number slightly more than the pot. Given his hand I think it was the right amount.

QQ ... ?

Kinda surprised he showed me KK given the preflop action.

KK Cracked by ... wow.

Who stacks off with AJ?? This guy!

SSssshhhhiiiittttt!

This also got some attention on the Cardschat forums. Just brutal man. I pretty much committed myself with my flop 3bet ... and ran into the nuts.